Author: larrygoldberg

Still No Clarity…

Just one more week with an alarming rise in the COVID-19 infection rate, but again, no sympathetic rise in the mortality rate. Erroneous reporting (again) Yesterday, 7/4/2020, saw the USA daily mortality rate reported from COVID-19 decline to a level not seen since March 23rd, and come within a hairsbreadth of penetrating the benchmark of […]

Problems are Looming

This week we revisit the mystery of the falling mortality count, even as the infection rate continues to rise alarmingly in the US. We find some signals in the data that helps explain this paradox, and which indicate that we face some serious problems. The Mortality Rate The secular decline in mortality from COVID-19 continued […]

So…Where’s the Spike?

There is a spike in COVID-19 infections! So we are told in stark headlines on national and local media. There has been a rising drumbeat of this warning ever since the mortality rate in the major US hotspots, particularly New York, abated. According to many, we are either experiencing a spike or are about to […]

Is the Downward Trajectory at Risk?

Source data downloaded from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries 6/7/2020 at 12pm The 1-week trailing average of mortality from COVID-19 has plunged firmly below 1,000 per day this week. It had briefly dipped below that marker last week, but only because the week before had been a long weekend, including Memorial Day holiday. Followers of this column will be […]

It’s Time to Open the Economy

Daily mortality rate now below 1,000 As can be seen from the USA Daily Mortality chart above, the 1 week trailing average has, for the first time since early April, slipped below the 1,000 deaths per week mark. We are using the trailing average because it can be seen clearly from the chart that there […]

Is Elon Musk Right?

Originally published in Linkedin 5/7/2020 Unlike many a public company CEO, Elon Musk is not given to guarded, carefully worded statements that hint at his convictions and concerns. He simply calls it as he sees, it, and lets the chips fall where they may. His most recent broadside at the powers that control the local […]